Chapman Forecaster Warns - Buying a High End OC Home Is A Mistake

Esmael Adibi is director of Chapman University’s Anderson Center for Economic Research. He has a stunningly accurate track record on predicting the housing market. He was early with a prediction that the O.C. housing market was in for a fall.

I had the pleasure of recently attending a meeting where Adibi was presenting. His presentation was very credible and based on sound analysis. His message? DO NOT BUY a higher end home in OC. These homes will fall a lot in the coming years. For a median price house, Adibi said to buy toward the end of 2009.

I'm standing by watching the Laguna beach home prices decline...........

South Laguna Comp - Big House, Big Lot - $500/sq. ft.

31401 Holly Street finally sold for $1,865,000. This is about a MILLION dollars less than the original listing price. When I was in the property at a time close to the original listing, I told the agent that the thing wrong with the price was .... the "2". As in it should sell for a price of a million dollars less that would instead begin with a "1". Of course, my comment was met with fake shock by the agent, who said something like "Why, this is a good deal even at the asking price! You have to realize what neighborhood you are in."
Uhhhh, yeah. Right.

In the end, it sold for about a MILLION dollars less than the asking price. I'll take my victory lap now. This is now great evidence of the fall in Laguna Beach home prices.

In any event, this is an ocean close/big house/big yard comp for $500 per square foot. It has 5 bedrooms, etc. Had some buyer trusted the outrageously high price originally sought by Coldwell Banker, they would have taken a $1,000,000 bath. Shame shame Coldwell Banker. Take note all.

2626 Victoria Drive Headed Toward Foreclosure

Bluemove documented the failed auction at 2626 Victoria Drive just after Thanksgiving of 2008. Now, Bluemove has discovered that, according to Realtytrac.com, a mortgage default for this property was recorded in early December. This is the first step of foreclosure and this is becoming a more common factor in Laguna Beach home prices.

The highest market price from the bidders at the failed auction was $1,500,000, but this was well below the price the seller would accept. If and when the bank forecloses, perhaps the home will sell for $1,500,000.