Accurate Forecaster Warns - Don't Buy - High End Homes Such as Those in Newport and Laguna Beach Will Continue to Fall Through End of 2010

I recently had the pleasure of attending a presentation of Dr Esmael Adibi, who has a track record second to none at predicting the OC housing market. His presentation was very credible - he reviewed his predictions from last year and they have come to pass. His message? DO NOT BUY a home in places like Newport Beach or Laguna Beach until at least the end of 2010. He said that such high end value areas will continue to fall in value. For a median price house in cheaper neighborhoods, Adibi said it is OK to buy now.

My take is that buying a home in Newport Beach or Laguna Beach is just like buying a car - drive it off the lot and take a huge hit in value. Closing escrow is just like driving off the car lot - buy a house in these beach towns and close escrow and LOSE a ton of money from the value decline during the escrow period. And for these hapless new owners, more losses are coming, with every passing day. Of course, real estate agents get paid on the day escrow closes, so they have absolutely no interest in what happens after that - you're on your own if you are a buyer!

Esmael Adibi is director of Chapman University’s Anderson Center for Economic Research. He has a stunningly accurate track record on predicting the housing market. He was early with a prediction that the O.C. housing market was in for a fall.

I'm standing by watching the Laguna Beach, Newport Beach and Crystal Cove home prices decline...........

Chapman Forecast - High End Home Prices Will Continue to Fall Well into 2010

Mr Blue's focus is on Newport Coast and Laguna Beach - properties well above the OC median price you generally read about in the media. The most recent data indicates that prices on Newport Coast and Laguna Beach homes most certainly will continue to fall almost all the way to 2011. Of course, the OC median price you may hear realtors talking about doesn't mean anything in Newport Coast or Laguna Beach, which are in the upper segment of home prices. The upper end prices have taken longer to start their plunge downward. Now that plunge is happening, as high end sellers cannot hold out forever with the hope of selling at a 2007 peak price.

The highest local authority in real estate in the OC is Chapman University's forecast, operated by Dr. Adibi. Just released, it says "Although our forecast suggests a bottoming out for median home prices, high-priced homes are still subject to further price erosions." If you buy, get a price that is below the present value of the home so you have a cushion to ride out the coming decline. That way you won't be upside down after owning for only a year. Good luck house hunting......

Chapman Forecaster Warns - Buying a High End OC Home Is A Mistake

Esmael Adibi is director of Chapman University’s Anderson Center for Economic Research. He has a stunningly accurate track record on predicting the housing market. He was early with a prediction that the O.C. housing market was in for a fall.

I had the pleasure of recently attending a meeting where Adibi was presenting. His presentation was very credible and based on sound analysis. His message? DO NOT BUY a higher end home in OC. These homes will fall a lot in the coming years. For a median price house, Adibi said to buy toward the end of 2009.

I'm standing by watching the Laguna beach home prices decline...........