ESCROW!!!!

Joy joy joy. My house north of LA is in escrow and hopefully will close soon! only 10 more days until all contingencies are lifted and I'm outta there!!!!

Laguna Home Sales Continue Slide

Dataquick's latest numbers are out for July. The number of properties sold in Laguna Beach is down 8% as compared to last July. Last July was not a good selling month and the market has slid even lower than that. This is a down indicator during what otherwise should be the peak of the typical selling season. The volume decrease is an irresistable market force that will drive prices lower. And prices have gone down for family homes - stay tuned for a post on this. All of t his does not bode well for the second half of 2008. Lookout below!

2616 Victoria Drive Update

There have been a lot of comments on this house on the blog.
It still appears to be listed at $3.7M. Someone claimed it was under contract but the listing still shows active so I think someone thought better of buying this small little Euro Box.

It doesn't compare well to the competition. For example, 170 Dumond is virtually brand new and is BIGGER and is in the same neighborhood, yet can't appear to fetch the much lower asking price of $2.89M.

Also 2626 Victoria Drive, brand new and BIGGER and has more parking and hasn't sold in over TWO years and has a listing price of $3.25M.

Even closer to the beach is 2670 Victoria at $1.8M. It is about the same size but older.

There you have it, three good reasons why the asking price for 2616 is a way way out of line. I wonder what the sales pitch is at the open houses for this property? How about "you really should buy this just because we have priced it so high - it is very exclusive, you know!"

1283 Starlit Drive - Another 11% reduction in price

This blog long ago identified the overvalued remodel at 1283 Starlit Drive - deep in Bluebird canyon. Well, the seller just reduced the price by $100,000 to $800,000. Considering it was bought in 2007 for $1,100,000, the asking price now represents about a 30% decrease. This is merely a comparison of the asking price and the last sale price. If (and when) the property sells for less, the real reduction will be even more. And this doesn't include the flipper's remodeling expenses.

Family homes in Laguna have slid downward big time. 1283 Starlit is Exhibit A.

Update: This home sold in April of 2009 for $835,000.

Back N Blue

Hello all. I must apologize for not blogging in a while. You see, I've been looking at the inside of many aircraft cabins, all of which were zipping across the globe. I've been above the Artic circle. Many times. I had the pleasure of being in O'Hare airport while an evacuation was attempted due to a tornado warning. Yes, the food is no good, the wine is lousy on the airlines and it certainly is great to be back in the OC. A quick look at the Laguna Beach listings reveals mostly the same old tired listings. Looks like a few fools have bought, but most people are wisely watching the market slide downward. Let the blogging begin anew!

1315 Dunning WTF Nuked by Next Door Comp Killer

1315 Dunning, back in the peaceful part of Bluebird Canyon, recently went on the market for $1.95M. It is the lower house shown in this picture.

Don't look next door...

1315 Dunning's listing says "This completely remodeled craftsman home is a masterpiece."

Hardly. I've been inside and its very very average.

Don't look next door.....

The listing goes on trying to make ordinary something more: "Offering hand hewn hardwood floors, Gourmet kitchen with stainless steel appliances and much more. "

Don't look next door, the listing agent hopes!

Why? Next door at 1325 Dunning sits the upper house in the picture. This home is also a "masterpiece." Its a DEAD ON COMP. Sold January 17. Sold for ONLY $1.35M.

When I was inside 1325 Dunning, the agent showing the house played dumb about the neighborhood until I said "That house next door, it looks familiar."

Dread on the agent's face.

I continued "I think it sold for a loooooot less, about 1.35 million." I could almost hear the agent thinking "oh no, an informed buyer - I won't be able to sell the house to this one."

In the end, she stammered "Oh, yes...but it was a short sale." I asked "wont the appraiser look at it? It could have sold for more if it was worth it?" She could do nothing but agree and hope that I would leave quick and not infect other buyers with the truth. This agent showing the house was not the listing agent.

So there you have it. A WTF price on Dunning from listing agent Shauna Covington. What's she thinking? It must be "I hope a moron shows up with an offer." I would think that most people would agree that the listing price does not reflect an honest valuation of this property. I wouldn't put my name and reputation at risk by putting a rediculous price on this listing. Buyer beware of Laguna Beach home prices.

Sales of Family Homes Approaching Standstill in Laguna Beach

If you follow the market, you already know this. The market is getting slower and slower and slower. Less sales. Many listings of family homes are retreads of failed 2007 listings. High prices and no takers. (and I'll say that the few takers near asking prices are simply misinformed or completely uniformed buyers)

Trulia.com's Feb-April 2008 home data for four bedroom homes shows only 5 selling during that period. In 2007, 11 four bedroom houses sold during the same time. This is about a 68% decrease from 2007. Another indicator that big price drops are ahead - sooner or later, more people will want to sell and laguna beach home prices will drop further.....

Existing Home Prices To Continue Decline Well into 2011

Ivy Zellman is Mr. Blue's favorite housing analyst. She's got Wall Street cred and a track record of predicting things that will happen. Tells the home market future, she does.

In her most recent article in Builder magazine, entitled False Hope, Ivy says the worst is yet to come and, most significantly, existing home price declines will continue into 2011. This is quite different from the local Laguna Beach real estate agents, most of who are talking upturn this year. Of course, most couldn't hold a candle to Ivy, so I listen with amusement. I feel sorry for their clients who may put their life savings on the line buying a house for the wrong price. Ivy knows her stuff. And this stuff says Laguna Beach home prices will continue to fall.

Flipper Smackdown - 1283 Starlit Drive

1283 Starlit Drive was featured on Bluemove in February. It is a somewhat remodeled home located way back in bluebird canyon with no ocean view.

My sage advice then? I said I was waiting for the $900K offers to roll in. I think the seller is a reader - today the listing price was lowered to .....$899K.

This is $400K lower than the original asking price, of $1,299,000, which is a 30.8% reduction.

The last purchase price, in 2007, was $1,100,000, so even if this home sells, the seller will see a big haircut.

This is the latest evidence that true market values are much less than most list prices in Laguna Beach. Laguna Beach home prices still have some settling to do.

Major Comp Killer in South Laguna - Pre 2004 or 2003 Prices Have Arrived!

32039 Virginia Way sold on April 8, 2008 for a paltry $1,125,000. Nice ocean views, 4 bedrooms and 2,650 square feet.

Activate Calculator.

WOW, that's $425 per square foot.

Not only that - the last sale price was $1,500,000 in April of 2004. That's right. The new sales price is LESS than 2004's sale price.

Ocean close in Laguna. How can similar homes now appraise for more? They can't. It will be an interesting summer. Laguna Beach home prices continue to spiral down.

Next time you see a real estate agent, ask him/her about this sale. Of course, they probably will claim ignorance. Give a client an accurate picture of the market? Not likely.