Dataquick November Stats Show Double Dip - Home Market Sinking

According to reputable real estate statistics company Dataquick, Southern California home sales fell in November to the second-lowest level for that month in 18 years, reflecting the weak economic recovery, a dormant new-home market and tight credit conditions. High end home sales are especially weak, but the median price paid for a home rose above a year earlier for the 12th consecutive month, though November’s gain was the tiniest yet.  Buyers be careful out there - factor future home value declines into your offering prices!

OC Home Prices Falling - Double Dip Confirmed

More evidence that Orange County home values are on the decline once again! This year’s price rally has faded, according to the OC Register.  If you are a home buyer, keep in mind that you are buying a declining asset and you will lose value every month, on top of your mortgage payment.  Renting is far superior at this point in time.

This data comes from CoreLogic, whose Orange County slice of its nationwide home price indexes shows local values falling at a 2.56% annual rate in October.
It was the second month of year-over-year declines following eight consecutive increases. Before that upswing, the CoreLogic index for Orange County had fallen 37 straight months on a year-over-year basis.

High End Listing Prices Too High - Increase in Price Reductions - OC Register

Buyers, another reason not to trust those high end list prices in Orange County - most were way too high and are being reduced by a whopping 10% compared to last year. Yet high end home sales are still stagnant. This means that even the reduced list prices are far above the real market values of these homes. Buying a high end home entails a risk that you will pay way too much and be left holding the bag. Can you say "poof, there goes your downpayment?"
For more info see the OC Register here.

Forecast: Calif. home prices to drop 9.9%

The OC register reports - Real estate trackers from FiServ and Moody’s Economy.com forecast that California home prices will fall 9.9% in the year ending in June 2011 — fourth biggest drop across the nation.  Essentially, all meager gains from June 2009-2010 will evaporate......

Recent Sales Weigh on 26 Cruisers Bluff

26 Cruisers Bluff, for sale at $5,300,000, is a White Sails model built by Taylor Woodrow in 2004.  It has 4 bedrooms and is about 5000 square feet and has very nice ocean views.  On a per square foot basis, it is priced at $1060 and this home last sold in mid-2008 for $5,175,000.

Two other White Sails homes have recently sold, both about 5000 square feet in size.  2 Gondoliers Bluff sold on November 8 for $4,100,000.  36 Gondoliers Bluff sold just 8 days later for $4,074,000.

Both of these recent sales were sold at prices of about $820 per square foot.  You can draw your own conclusions.....
One last data point - 2 Gondoliers Bluff is a fantastic home, as shown by the photo below:

Laguna Letdown - Housing Prices Flat & Sales Sinking Marketwide - OC Register

More details at the OC Register, but in short, the housing market continued to struggle against fierce headwinds last month, losing ground in the face of tightfisted lenders and edgy buyers.

The median price of an Orange County home – or price at the midpoint of all sales – fell to $438,000 last month, housing tracker MDA DataQuick reported Tuesday.

Last month's median price also fell $12,000 from the 2010 high of $450,000 reached in May and July. That means that all the price gains of the past year have virtually evaporated.

$2 Million+ Homes Not Selling In Laguna - OC Register

It’s common to see homes for sale with prices well over $1 million in Laguna Beach, but is anyone buying those homes right now?  Not really....
More on this from the OC Register is here.

Freshest Dataquick Sales Numbers Show Continued Home Value Slide

The latest housing numbers for sales during the 22 day period ending October 8 have just been released and have been published by the OC Register.

The numbers show a continued plunge in Laguna Beach and Newport Coast.  Corona Del Mar is slightly up year over year, but is unchanged from the September data i previously posted. 

The highlights:
Laguna Beach:
only 32 homes sold, median price down 19.2% to $1,050,000.

Coronal Del Mar:
only 20 homes sold, median price up 3% to $1,498,000.

Newport Coast:
only 19 homes sold, median price down 8.1% to $1,540,000

Awesome Chart - What Year Have LA Home Values Rolled Back To?

This chart was part of the Anderson Forecast presentation at UCLA.  LA home values are at a level similar to that of January 2004.

One Seabourne Home May Sell - Another Seabourn Listing Fails in Crystal Cove

52 Sidney Bay was recently pulled from the market.  Listed at a lofty $2.9 million, it didn't sell and may have been rented for substantially less than the cost of owning at $2.9 million.  I saw a rental listing for this home recently, but cannot find it now.

The owners of 9 Atlantis Cove aggressively reduced their asking price to $2,395,000 and succeeded in drawing an offer from someone who is shopping the Seabourne models in Crystal Cove.  Surprisingly, 9 Atlantis Cove is now listed as pending on Redfin.  If it sells somewhere near the asking price, such a sale price probably would have been what the home would have sold for sometime in 2004, in my opinion.

Will the buyer stick around and close?  Time will tell.

The remaining Seabourne homes for sale have been on and off the market for an average of 688 days.
This is the real time since the homes were first listed, even if they were taken on and off the market.  Real estate agents commonly delist and relist properties so the days on the market (DOM) indicator from the MLS can be a lot less than reality.  I find that my way of looking at DOM a useful indicator of market weakness because it really shows how long the seller has been trying, on and off, to sell a home.

The raw data is:
 
11 Secret Cove - 1731 days - First listed on Jan 31, 2006.
2 Secret Cove - 552 days - First listed in April 2009.
24 Wharfside Drive - 995 days - First listed in February 2008.
62 Sidney Bay - 56 days
5 Atlantis Cove - 106 days