Sunday, February 14, 2010

Accurate Forecaster Warns - Don't Buy - High End Homes Such as Those in Newport and Laguna Beach Will Continue to Fall Through End of 2010


I recently had the pleasure of attending a presentation of Dr Esmael Adibi, who has a track record second to none at predicting the OC housing market. His presentation was very credible - he reviewed his predictions from last year and they have come to pass. His message? DO NOT BUY a home in places like Newport Beach or Laguna Beach until at least the end of 2010. He said that such high end value areas will continue to fall in value. For a median price house in cheaper neighborhoods, Adibi said it is OK to buy now.

My take is that buying a home in Newport Beach or Laguna Beach is just like buying a car - drive it off the lot and take a huge hit in value. Closing escrow is just like driving off the car lot - buy a house in these beach towns and close escrow and LOSE a ton of money from the value decline during the escrow period. And for these hapless new owners, more losses are coming, with every passing day. Of course, real estate agents get paid on the day escrow closes, so they have absolutely no interest in what happens after that - you're on your own if you are a buyer!

Esmael Adibi is director of Chapman University’s Anderson Center for Economic Research. He has a stunningly accurate track record on predicting the housing market. He was early with a prediction that the O.C. housing market was in for a fall.

I'm standing by watching the Laguna Beach, Newport Beach and Crystal Cove home prices decline...........

1 comment:

Kommissar said...

Hey Blue,

Great post! I couldn't agree more, prices aren't going down and seller are still in denial. When will sellers realized their homes aren't winning lottery tickets?

My favorite example is a curious property I've been watching for years, 2900 Terry Road in Laguna. I remember it being listed for 1.6M dropped to 1.25, disappeared and is now re-listed at 1.1M as a bank owned (foreclosed) property. It's never been lived in and frankly looks a little uncomfortable, like a jail cell. At least the re-listing has new pictures. :)