Friday, October 1, 2010

5 Shoreline Comp Casts Major Doubt on Crystal Cove Home Values

5 Shoreline, a 7000+ square foot mansion on the ocean side of PCH, just sold for $3,195,000. That's $435 per square foot. This home is on the ocean side of PCH and on the Pelican Hill Golf Course. Just south on PCH there are plenty of Crystal Cove home listings for homes on the inland side of PCH for up to double the price. Of course, most of these homes are just sitting there, with no buyer activity.

5 Shoreline is a 7000 square foot mansion on about a 1/3 of a flat acre. On top of that, it has ocean vistas, is on a golf course, and is walking distance to the beach. This is much better or equivalent to anything listed for sale at $5,000,000 or less in Crystal Cove. A comp it is.

In my opinion, this comp puts major doubt on most, if not all, of the asking prices for these homes.

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

No ocean view, and the worst tract of ticky-tacky, townhouse-like homes in that area.

It's not comparable to houses on the hill with huge views, and a feeling of a lot more space.

14 Cliffhouse Bluff and 52 Archipelago are better comps for most of that area.

Anonymous said...

What do you expect from this guy? Broad statements of "facts" which turn out to be his own imagination.

Of course its not comparable. That's why you better not trust your money to this bozo, he has no clue what he is talking about.

Anonymous said...

FACT CHECK:

BLUE MOVE SAYS " Of course, most of these homes are just sitting there, with no buyer activity" refering to Crystal Cove.

FACT: Redfin reports 19 homes sold in the last 6 months in Crystal Cove.

If there is no buyer activity, who is buying? Imaginary buyers?

Get your facts correct, because each day your looking more like a disgruntled loser..

Get your facts correct b

Mr. Blue said...

Fact: Only 5 crystal cove homes have sold in the last three months. Going back any further doesn't help form an accurate picture in this dynamic market. There are 40 properties listed for sale in Crystal Cove. That is a two year supply - either way you slice it, "most homes" are in fact sitting around without buyer activity.

You can go back as far as you want to make the sold numbers look better, but that does not reflect what is happening now.

Then again, all you real estate agents could do us a favor and calculate the losses of all those past home purchasers by comparing what they paid to what their homes are worth now. And then throw in your the total of you commissions while you are at it so the public will have an accurate picture of your motives.......

Mr. Blue said...

"ticky tacky townhouses"
Save that nonsense spin for your buyers.

This is a 7000 square foot mansion on a 1/3 of a flat acre. On top of that, it has ocean vistas, is on a golf course, and is walking distance to the beach. This is much better or equivalent to anything listed for sale at $5,000,000 or less in Crystal Cove. A comp it is.

Anonymous said...

Hah, I love the "Anonymous" used house salesmen comments on your blog!

"worst tract of t-t townhouse like homes..."

sure, 7ksf, check out the video tour:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZIQyLPjiduc

looks like it was purchased from the builder in 2000 for about $3.5M. Originally listed for $5.5M.

Let's see...3.2/5.5...only 42%off list price...

How low will the high end ticky-tacky townhouses on the other side of PCH go for in the next few months?

FreedomCM

Anonymous said...

I'm the first anonoymous comment, and I'm not a realtor, but an actual buyer.

Again, that particular house is a terrible comparison in contrast to the two I mentioned, but even better, todat there was an open house for 25 Offshore (27 is also for sale). Both are listed at about $6.5. Three other houses on Offshore have sold this year, all for more than $6m, which apparently is why 25 Offshore's price was raised by $500,000.

29 Offshore sold for $6m in June, 23 sold for 6.4 in August, 31 sold for 6.5 in April... those are the real, rock solid comps for that area.

Those big little boxes on the ocean side are only comps for each other, no way are they comps for what is up on the hill --- and likewise, the lower part of the hill (with small lots) isn't really a good comp for the houses above Moonshell on the hill, which have a bit more space around them.

Mr. Blue said...

Anon, I agree that the shoreline sale is not a good comp for the six to seven million dollar price points in crystal cove. It is especially relevant on the mid to lower part of the hill, where list prices are lower. For example, the shoreline sale compared to many or all of the seaborne homes listed for sale leaves me with the impression that those listings are way overpriced....

Anonymous said...

First Anon again, well, if you want to see delusional, check out 23 Moon Shell put on the market today at $8.4m... even though it sold for $6.7m in 2007. Bzzzzzt, fail. The two comps on Moon Shell are 6m and 6.5m, plus the slightly preferable houses on Offshore..

Sure, if the aim is to list at 8.4 is because you are hoping to sell at 6.5 instead of 6.0, then it makes sense as an original listing price, but a 30% markdown to 6.0 is out of line with these properties, which basically all sell between 6 and 6.5 regardless of list price. A lot more eyeballs with see the house if it started at 7.4.

Anonymous said...

Blue Move says, "There are 40 properties listed for sale in Crystal Cove. That is a two year supply - either way you slice it, "most homes" are in fact sitting around without buyer activity."


So your logic once again is silly.

It's always going to be true.

Most homes will be sitting because the probability that number of homes sold in the last three months is greater than the number of homes listed in very slim chances.

And it proves nothing.

You ignore the facts.

19 homes sold in Crystal Cove....in six months.

If you want to keep moving the goal line, just tell us where the new goaline is.

Oh, BTW, i am not a realtor, nor do I sell homes. I just have a good bullshit detector, and you seem to set it off regularly.

Anonymous said...

ANOTHER CC HOUSE SOLD TODAY. 5 MIL. Bought for 5.6 Mil in 2006.

Where is the huge price drop? Where is the big 40% loss?

Not with this house.

The facts are counter to your thesis.

Mr. Blue said...

OMG - a Crystal Cove house sold? Really? ;)
I'll look into the data when I have a chance. Looks like it sold for a pre-2006 value.