Sunday, December 9, 2007

Key Analyst Reports This Downturn Will Be Worse Than 1990s

In the November issue of Builder magazine, Ivy Zelman reports that "I firmly believe that this housing recession will substantially reduce consumer spending in 2008 and 2009. I also believe that this downturn is much more severe in many markets than the 1990–1991 housing recession and is much wider in scope." Zelman is a highly respected housing analyst who warned of the current housing market woes well in advance. You can read the article here.

Zelman also reports that consumers have lost complete confidence in housing, and that "recent results speak to the severity of this downturn. Sales have nearly disappeared in many metro markets." Given that Laguna Beach is more linked to consumer spending than other OC areas, I wonder if it will get hit the hardest. The first things to go when consumer spending tightens are second homes and luxury vacations.

Ouch, that sounds like us, right here, right now.

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